Category: Blog

In one year’s time, the U.S. inflation rate dropped by more than half, from 8.2 percent in September 2022 to 3.7 percent in September of 2023.

If there is a downside to lower inflation, it’s a lower cost of living adjustment (COLA). This year, the inflation rate plummeted from 6.4 percent in January to the current 3.7 percent. While food prices, both grocery and dining out, continue to increase. Between February 2020 and September 2023, grocery store prices rose 25%. That was slightly above the 23% increase in menu prices during the same period. But a number of consumer goods prices had decreased by midsummer, such as:

• Gasoline (-26.5%)
• Airline fares (-18.9%)
• Car and truck rentals (-12.4%)
• Major appliances (-10.7%)
• Televisions (-9.9%)

The Problem with Inflation Data

Inflation data can be misleading for a number of reasons. First, while inflation statistics are quoted annually, these are compounded figures. The annual inflation figures for the past three years are as follows:

• January 2022: 5.9%
• January 2023: 8.7%
• January 2024: 3.2%

If you add each year’s annual inflation, it comes to 17.8 percent; however, compounded prices rose by 18.8 percent over the three-year period. Now, imagine the compounding effect of inflation over many more years.

Second, when you hear that there is a decrease in inflation, it is not that prices are lowering; instead, it’s that prices are increasing but at a slower rate. For prices to drop, we would need actual deflation and not just lower inflation.

Finally, you need to remember that whether it is from a Social Security COLA increase or a raise at your job, an increase in income equal to inflation does not keep up with the actual cost of inflation. This is because of taxes. If you get a raise equal to inflation, you take home that amount less taxes, so your wages or Social Security is really not keeping up with inflation.

Take all three of these factors together, and that’s why inflation feels much worse at the grocery store than it appears on paper.

Social Security Benefits

The fluctuating inflation rate doesn’t just impact the prices of consumer goods, it also affects income. Specifically, Social Security benefits are adjusted each year based on changes in the cost of living.

More than 71 million Americans currently receive Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits. One in four households of people age 65 and older depend on their Social Security check for at least 90 percent of their family income. Therefore, it is very important that COLA adjustments keep up with inflation.

Given that the inflation rate fluctuated between 7.1 percent and 9.1 percent last year, Social Security benefits increased by 8.7 percent in 2023. However, since inflation has dropped significantly in 2023, Social Security benefits will increase by only 3.2 percent in 2024.

To find out how much individual Social Security paychecks will increase, beneficiaries can check the Message Center of their my Social Security account. In early December, recipients will receive notification of their increased payment by mail.

How the Increase is Determined

Be aware that if there is no year-to-year increase in inflation, there is no cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security income. While inflation rates vary, it is pretty uncommon not to have some sort of increase.

Effective January 2024, the average monthly Social Security benefit for a retired worker is $1,907; for a married couple, the combined average is $3,033. The maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax is scheduled to increase from $160,200 in 2023 to $168,600 in 2024.

Health Savings Accounts

Starting in 2024, the annual contribution limit for an HSA linked to a high-deductible healthcare plan will be $4,150 for individual coverage; $8,300 for a family plan.

2025: Catch-up Contribution

Starting in 2025, people ages 60 to 63 will be able to significantly increase catch-up contributions to certain employer-sponsored retirement plans. The limit will increase to $10,000 – or 50 percent more than the regular catch-up amount – whichever is greater.

2026: Catch-up Contribution Twist

Starting in 2026, catch-up contributions made by people earning more than $145,000 will have to be contributed to an after-tax Roth account. Note that the Roth account requirement applies only to workers whose wages are subject to FICA taxes, so it does not apply to partners, the self-employed, or state and local government employees.

As of this writing, the IRS has not yet released changes to contribution limits for qualified retirement plans in 2024.

 

You can work and still receive Social Security benefits, but how much you receive depends on a number of factors.

First, if you do plan to continue working after becoming eligible to receive benefits, you might consider delaying filing for benefits for as long as possible. That’s because the earlier you begin drawing benefits, the lower the amount you will receive. In fact, your monthly payout will be permanently reduced from what you’ll receive if you wait until full retirement age (FRA).

Your FRA depends on the year you were born (note that for people born on Jan. 1 of any year, they should refer to the previous year):

• Born 1943-1954: full retirement age is 66
• Born in 1955: 66 plus two months
• Born in 1956: 66 plus four months
• Born in 1957: 66 plus six months
• Born in 1958: 66 plus eight months
• Born in 1959: 66 plus 10 months
• Born in 1960 or later: 67

Benefit Reduction Due to Work

If you are working and begin drawing benefits before your full retirement age, your payout could be further reduced if you earn more than the prescribed income limit. In 2023, the annual earnings limit is $21,240. In this scenario, Social Security will deduct $1 from your benefits for each $2 in excess of the limit.

Benefit Reduction in Your FRA Year

The benefit reduction amount and the earned income limit both change the year you reach FRA. In 2023, the earned income limit is $56,520. In this year only, the reduction is adjusted to $1 for every $3 in excess of $56,520, but only up until the month you reach FRA. After that, there will no longer be a reduction due to work income.

In the first full month after your FRA, Social Security will begin paying out your total eligible amount (which depends on the age you started drawing benefits) for any whole month after FRA, regardless of how much more you earn that year (and every year thereafter). In other words, from that point on, you will receive the full amount you were eligible for at the age you began drawing benefits.

You might wonder if you will ever receive the money that was held back due to your excess income. The answer is yes. Starting the following January, after you turn full retirement age, your Social Security benefit will increase to reflect those previously lost benefits.

Work Advantages

If working while drawing Social Security seems like a bad idea, consider that you could benefit from a couple of advantages. First, the automatic benefit reductions that occur while you’re working will help reduce your income tax liability for those years. Second, your work income could increase your permanent Social Security payout if any or all of those years before FRA are among your 35 highest-earning years. As you continue to pay FICA taxes on your work income, the benefit is recalculated every year. This is a way to increase your lifetime benefit if you begin drawing Social Security early.

Work Until Age 70

The most strategic way to earn the highest possible lifetime benefit from Social Security is to keep working and delay drawing Social Security benefits until age 70. This is because during the years between your official FRA and the month you turn 70, you can earn additional credits that reward you for delaying. This will permanently bump up your payout.

If You Go Back to Work

Also, be aware that if you’ve already started drawing Social Security benefits but wish you hadn’t, you can cancel your application as long as you do so in the first 12 months. Note that you are required to pay back all of the money you received from Social Security, including any spousal benefit that was based on your earnings record and all Medicare premiums that were deducted from your benefits. However, doing so could reset your benefit to a higher amount when you reapply later – if your subsequent annual income counts among your highest 35 years of earnings.

If you have already reached your full retirement age (but have not yet turned age 70), you no longer have the option cancel your application. However, you can have your Social Security benefit suspended, which might reduce your tax bill while you continue working.